Daily Blog • November 27th


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS 76-58 This Year
MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIN 130
243
19
2.6
#27
WAS 90
275
25
1.5
#11

The big story here naturally is the firing of HC Childress and DC Frazier takes over. The Vikings season is over as its unlikely a 9-7 team will make the playoffs in the NFC this year and the only question that remains is whether QB Favre will be able to finish the season as he clearly is not the same player as LY and the return of WR Rice was too little too late. MIN has lost their last 8 games on the road in regular season play losing by a 27-17 avg score. Meanwhile the Redskins at one point had 7 players KO’d of the TEN game with injuries but they held on for a 19-16 win in OT. They had 14-5 FD and 242-123 yd edges at the end of the 2H and wore down the Titans with a 86-51 play edge and 13:35 TOP edge. MIN’s season is over while the Redskins still have outside hopes of a playoff bid
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHington 23 MINN 20

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEN 117
235
27
1.0
#3
HOU 123
310
228
1.7
#25

The Titans are in disarray as Fisher disowned Vince Young after the Redskins game. They are off 3 tough losses with the L/2 vs teams they had the health and talent edges. HOU has lost B2B road games on last second plays but are only 2 games behind IND/JAX in the standings. TEN has been surprisingly vulnerable to the pass the L3W allowing 325 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio giving up 27 ppg. This has put the onus on the passing game, which TEN isn’t built for even with Moss added. TEN has lost 3 straight and #3 QB Rusty Smith (62 yds 33% 0-1) a rookie 6th RD DC from Florida Atlantic was named the starter after LW’s game. I’ll take the home team by 6 as the Texans capitalize on the Titans in disarray here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUston 23 TENNessee 17

 

CAROLINA AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAR 101
170
9
3.3
#13
CLE 175
203
32
2.2
#9

LW the Panthers were forced to start FA QB St Pierre off 4 practices vs BAL but this week Clausen should return to the starting role. Meanwhile CLE is off another tough 4Q loss despite forcing 6 TO’s vs the Jags.  CLE and CAR have similar play styles as they want to run the ball and play a stout physical defense. The difference is that the Browns are succeeding and playing hard for their coaching staff while the Panthers are struggling mightily and playing out the string. Both teams are injury depleted but I think the Browns have better personnel and playing at home gives them a huge edge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEveland 24 CARolina 7

 

PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHI 113
210
20
1.8
#17
CHI 101
223
23
2.9
#8

PHI overcame a solid defensive effort by the Giants and now travel off B2B primetime games.  Meanwhile CHI posted their 1st shutout win in 4 years however that was vs a MIA team down to its #3 QB, who had to field its #3 Ctr and Cutler only had 156 yds and was lucky to escape with just 1 int. However their OL has allowed only 5 sacks the L/3 wks and on D they have the defensive speed to contain Vick.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CHIcago 24 PHIladelphia 21

 

MIAMI AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIA 120
208
19
2
#22
OAK 158
190
20
1
#10

Miami is off a shutout home loss to CHI where OC Henning put a flawed gameplan together that exposed a beat up OL & put too much on an inexperienced QB. OAK wasn’t much better as they were blasted by PIT who were able to shut down OAK’s run game. With both defenses among the top 10 in the NFL, I’ll go with the home team in this one as they will get just enough plays from their QB. 
PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKland 17 MIAMI 14

 

ST LOUIS AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STL 114
195
20
2.1
#26
DEN 101
280
27
1.8
#21

Denver’s offensive surge against KC was more the result of a bye week as they were exposed on MNF to the Chargers LW.  The Rams have avg just 14 ppg on the road TY and Denver had a season high 4 sks vs KC and expect the Broncos to force Bradford into making quick decisions and Denver’s veteran secondary will be ready. Until St Louis and their young QB learns to win on the NFL road I’ll go with the Broncos.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DENver 23 ST louis 17

 

 
PITTSBURGH AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PIT 139
215
25
1.5
#2
BUF 76
218
18
2.7
#19

Buffalo followed up its 1st win of the year with their biggest comeback in 13 years with 35 2H points vs CIN’s depleted secondary while PIT flexed its muscle defensive muscle at home vs OAK LW with a 228-52 yd edge in the 1H with just 61 yds (3.8) rushing allowed.   PIT is off 3 straight prime time games and a rematch vs OAK who beat them in Heinz Field in 2009. They have a SNF road game vs BAL on deck but they are expecting a slew of Steelers fans to make the road trip to support them here and should roll in this one.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTsburgh 34 BUFFalo 17

JACKSONVILLE AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JAX 94
193
20
2.6
#4
NYG 140
315
31
2.5
#29

The Jags are off B2B last second wins at home vs the #31 and #20 defenses and last week survived a CLE team that couldn’t capitalize on 6 JAX TO’s. Meanwhile the Giants had a great defensive game plan vs the Eagles but made some key mistakes late. The Giants coming off the loss should not be in a flat spot here as they need the win for playoff positioning. The NYG defense should be in a foul mood, and they have pulled in 17 of their 24 sacks at home TY and with a crowd edge should get a comfortable win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NYG 37 JAcksonville 20

TAMPA BAY AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TB 88
203
17
1.9
#15
BALT 91
205
21
3.1
#20

BAL dominated CAR statistically LW with a pair of int returns for TD’s late to put the game away. Not counting punts or FG’s the Panthers only had 11 plays on the Ravens side of the field with 5 coming in the 2H after a 64 yd KR. TB is 4-1 on the road TY and shutout SF last week. In his L5 games Flacco has passed for 263 ypg (68%) with an 11-1 ratio with a solid 8.2 ypa. While TB is a surprising 7-3 TY they lack a win vs a quality foe as all their victories have been vs foes with a losing record that are a combined 17-53.  TB struggles to defend the run (#29 137 ypg 4.8), rush the passer (30th with 14 sacks 1 every 22 att’s) and could be very tired here. BAL is the better team and need every win they can get in a tight AFC North race.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALtimore 26 Tampa Bay 17

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GB 88
263
25
1.2
#28
ATL 116
260
22
1.2
#18

GB is off a big win vs MIN where they effectively ended their playoff hopes. They now travel to an ATL team that is 19-1 at home under QB Ryan and the crowd noise and turf plays to their speed advantages. This game features a pair of fairly matched teams with ATL having the #7 and #17 units (+11 TO’s) vs GB’s #13 and #11 units (+8 TO’s). ATL has played a tougher sked though (#13 vs #25) to date. LW ATL got a good game from STL for the first 3Q’s but forced a TO and pulled away in the 4Q. ATL has the edge in being more balanced offensively with a 46-54 run/pass ratio thanks to RB Turner. GB shift its RB’s to more of a pass blocking/outlet role when RB Grant went out and ATL will be able to focus more on coverage here. I’ll side with the home team in a matchup between to probable playoff teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLanta 27 Green Bay 21

KANSAS CITY AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KC 145
240
25
1.2
#14
SEA 105
298
22
2.1
#7

The NFC West leader faces off against the AFC West leader in this one. LW KC bounced back from a pair of Div losses by beating ARZ 31-13 at home giving up a garbage time 83 yd TD drive at the end. Meanwhile SEA was caught in a B2B travel situation & were wore down by the Saints coming off their bye. SEA now has the travel & crowd edge here and got back LT Okung with DT Cole and WR Tate slated to return here. The Chiefs offense revolves around their rush attack but they’ve been slowed avg 105 ypg and 3.9 ypc and that incl’s a 39 yd run LW vs the porous Cardinals. Also an issue is the KC pass protection which allowed only 5 sacks the first 6 weeks but has allowed 3+ sacks 3 times the L4W. Seattle HC Carroll is smartly picking his battles with injured players to maximize their play at home and the strong Qwest home field edge is the difference.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SEAttle 33 Kansas city 18